Actuarial Science
Pricing, reserving, capital modelling and experience analysis grounded in frequency–severity methods, survival models and extreme-value theory.
Explore actuarial pricing, reserving and capital modellingFounder and Chief Executive Officer, Quantica Risk Modelling
Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour, known as Yonas Osman — Actuarial, Financial Risk and Quantitative Modelling Expert
Actuarial, Financial Risk and Quantitative Modelling Expert
Connecting actuarial science, banking risk, insurance capital and quantitative models with practical executive decisions.
Professional focus
Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour, known as Yonas Osman works across actuarial modelling, financial risk, banking and insurance capital, and the governance of quantitative models. The through-line is practical: models exist to inform decisions about pricing, capital, liquidity, underwriting, risk appetite and strategic resilience.
More than twenty years of experience across banking, insurance, asset and liability management, market and liquidity risk, model validation and capital adequacy inform that perspective. The work spans regulatory processes such as ICAAP, ILAAP, IFRS 9, ORSA and IFRS 17, alongside quantitative frameworks for geopolitical risk, marine war risk, climate risk and economic scenarios. In each case the objective is the same — a defensible, documented route from uncertain evidence to a decision a board can take and explain.
Areas of expertise
Nine connected disciplines
Financial Risk Management
Market, credit and liquidity risk, capital adequacy, stress testing and risk appetite connected into one coherent enterprise framework.
See how market, credit and liquidity risk connect to capitalBanking and Prudential Risk
ICAAP, ILAAP, IRRBB, IFRS 9 and recovery planning treated as management instruments rather than regulatory submissions.
Review ICAAP, ILAAP, IRRBB and IFRS 9 practiceInsurance Risk and Capital
ORSA, solvency capital, IFRS 17, underwriting risk, reinsurance structuring and accumulation control across the insurance balance sheet.
Examine ORSA, solvency capital and IFRS 17 practiceModel Risk and Validation
Independent validation across conceptual soundness, data, calibration, back-testing, benchmarking, stability and ongoing monitoring.
Read the validation framework for banking and insurance modelsMarine and Geopolitical Risk
War-risk exposure, conflict-event modelling, chokepoint accumulation and the route from geopolitical signal to technical premium.
Understand conflict-event modelling for marine war riskClimate and Catastrophe Risk
Physical and transition risk, hazard–vulnerability–exposure modelling, tail estimation, climate scenarios and insurance affordability.
Explore physical, transition and catastrophe risk modellingAI and Quantitative Modelling
Machine learning, Bayesian inference, stochastic processes and simulation, applied with explainability, validation and human oversight.
See quantitative methods and responsible AI practice in riskFeatured insights
Selected professional articles
Marine Insurance9 min read
Marine War Risk Insurance in 2026: Hormuz, Red Sea and the New Underwriting Reality
Two corridors now dominate marine war risk: the Strait of Hormuz and the southern Red Sea. Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour, known as Yonas Osman sets out how the 2026 capacity picture, incl…
By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour, known as Yonas Osman
Model Risk12 min read
AI Model Risk Management in 2026: PRA SS1/23, Validation and Governance
Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour, known as Yonas Osman sets out how banks should manage artificial-intelligence and machine-learning model risk in 2026 under the Prudential Regulation Author…
By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour, known as Yonas Osman
Financial Risk4 min read
Hedge Fund Strategies Explained: Risk and Return Drivers Across the Main Styles
Hedge fund returns are usually described by strategy label, but capital and risk decisions require the underlying exposures. In this foundational article Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour, kn…
By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour, known as Yonas Osman
Risk Governance4 min read
A Risk Management Framework for Hedge Funds: Limits, Measurement and Governance
Risk management in a hedge fund fails for organisational reasons far more often than for mathematical ones. Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour, known as Yonas Osman describes a framework that …
By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour, known as Yonas Osman
Insurance and Capital5 min read
IFRS 17 Insurance Contracts Explained: The Three Measurement Models
IFRS 17 replaced a patchwork of national practices with a single measurement architecture for insurance contracts: a current, discounted, risk-adjusted estimate of fulfilment cash flows, plu…
By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour, known as Yonas Osman
Insurance and Capital3 min read
The Contractual Service Margin: How IFRS 17 Profit Actually Emerges
The contractual service margin is the single most consequential number in an IFRS 17 balance sheet. It is the store of unearned profit, the shock absorber for changes in future-service assum…
By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour, known as Yonas Osman
A separate professional initiative
Quantica Risk Modelling
Quantica Risk Modelling focuses on transforming complex risk signals into decision-relevant quantitative outputs across geopolitical, marine, climate, actuarial and financial risk. Possible applications include event-risk measurement, marine war-risk pricing inputs, capital assessment, underwriting limits, risk-appetite metrics, climate-risk analytics, economic scenario generation and model governance evidence.
Quantica's analytical frameworks are intended for modelling, research and professional decision support. They do not constitute insurance coverage, investment advice, legal advice or a guarantee of future outcomes. Any regulated service is subject to the applicable authorisation and contractual framework.
Read about Quantica Risk Modelling