Quantica Risk Modelling
Climate risk analytics that change a decision
A climate score that nobody prices on is an expensive compliance artefact.
By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour, known as Yonas Osman (Yonas Osman) ·
Many climate programmes stop at a heat map. The map satisfies a disclosure requirement and changes nothing. Useful climate analytics have to arrive in the units the business already uses: expected loss, capital, premium, limit.
That means decomposing the chain properly — hazard intensity, exposure location and value, vulnerability, and financial terms — and being explicit about which link carries the most uncertainty. For most portfolios it is vulnerability, not the climate science.
Transition risk deserves the same discipline. Policy and technology pathways can be expressed as scenario-conditional shocks to revenue, collateral and default probability, then pushed through existing credit and capital machinery rather than modelled in a parallel universe.
Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour, known as Yonas Osman, is an actuary and FRM who has spent more than twenty years building and validating risk models across banking, insurance and marine markets.
Key takeaways
- Deliver climate output in loss, capital and premium units.
- Vulnerability usually dominates the uncertainty budget.
- Transition risk belongs inside the existing credit model, not beside it.
Author bio
Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour, known as Yonas Osman is an actuary, FRM and financial risk professional specialising in banking, insurance, model risk, capital modelling and quantitative risk management.