Quantica Risk Modelling
Marine war risk: pricing the chokepoint, not the voyage
Accumulation at a strait, not the individual hull, is what breaks a marine book.
By Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour, known as Yonas Osman (Yonas Osman) ·
Marine war risk looks like a per-voyage pricing problem and behaves like an accumulation problem. A single event at a strait can touch dozens of insured interests across hull, cargo and liability simultaneously.
Quantica models exposure at the geography, aggregating vessels, cargo values and transit windows to produce an accumulation view that sits alongside the technical premium. The two answers are different questions and both belong in the underwriting file.
Because the peril is event-driven and sparsely observed, results are presented as ranges conditional on stated event assumptions, with the transit-window logic and value assumptions fully visible to the underwriter.
Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour, known as Yonas Osman, is an actuary and FRM who has spent more than twenty years building and validating risk models across banking, insurance and marine markets.
Key takeaways
- Price the voyage, manage the chokepoint.
- Hull, cargo and liability accumulate against the same event.
- Transit-window assumptions drive the answer and must be visible.
Author bio
Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour, known as Yonas Osman is an actuary, FRM and financial risk professional specialising in banking, insurance, model risk, capital modelling and quantitative risk management.