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Fack- och marknadsföringsartiklar om bank- och tillsynsrisk, försäkring och aktuariellt arbete, marin och geopolitisk risk, klimat- och katastrofrisk, kvantitativa metoder och modellstyrning.
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Two corridors now dominate marine war risk: the Strait of Hormuz and the southern Red Sea. Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour, known as Yonas Osman sets out how the 2026 capacity picture, incl…
Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour, known as Yonas Osman sets out how banks should manage artificial-intelligence and machine-learning model risk in 2026 under the Prudential Regulation Author…
Hedge fund returns are usually described by strategy label, but capital and risk decisions require the underlying exposures. In this foundational article Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour, kn…
Risk management in a hedge fund fails for organisational reasons far more often than for mathematical ones. Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour, known as Yonas Osman describes a framework that …
Hedge fund failures are rarely caused by a view being wrong; they are caused by the fund being unable to hold the position long enough to be right. Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour, known as…
Drawdown is the constraint that ends funds, because recovery is arithmetically asymmetric and investor patience is not. Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour, known as Yonas Osman examines the ma…
A track record is a sample, and most hedge fund samples are too short to distinguish skill from luck. Jonas Mohamed Osman Abdelghafour, known as Yonas Osman sets out how to measure hedge fun…
IFRS 17 replaced a patchwork of national practices with a single measurement architecture for insurance contracts: a current, discounted, risk-adjusted estimate of fulfilment cash flows, plu…
The contractual service margin is the single most consequential number in an IFRS 17 balance sheet. It is the store of unearned profit, the shock absorber for changes in future-service assum…
The IFRS 17 risk adjustment is the compensation an entity requires for bearing uncertainty in the amount and timing of cash flows arising from non-financial risk. The standard prescribes no …
Most short-duration general insurance business is measured under the premium allocation approach, and it is often described as the simple option. It is simpler only for the liability for rem…
European insurers run two current-value measurement frameworks over the same portfolio. Solvency II answers a solvency question; IFRS 17 answers a performance question. They share a discount…
Artificial intelligence has not created a new category of risk governance. It has stressed the existing one, by increasing the number of decision-influencing systems faster than most institu…
Monte Carlo simulation estimates the distribution of an outcome by generating many random realisations of its inputs. It is the standard technique wherever a problem has too many interacting…
Machine-learning models are subject to the same validation obligations as any other model, with additional attention required in four areas: data leakage, stability, explainability and bias.…
An economic scenario generator produces internally consistent simulated paths for interest rates, inflation, equity returns, credit spreads and exchange rates. It underpins market-risk capit…
Catastrophe models are the basis on which insurers price peril-exposed business, size reinsurance and hold capital. Their outputs are also part of the reason cover is becoming unaffordable i…
Flood-risk modelling converts physical hazard into financial loss through a chain of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and financial modules. Each link introduces uncertainty, and flood is unu…
The liquidity coverage ratio and net stable funding ratio are standardised minimum tests. They are useful for comparability and insufficient for management, because they use prescribed outfl…
Global shipping depends on a small number of narrow passages. For a marine insurer this creates a structural accumulation problem: many independently underwritten risks that are not independ…
IFRS 9 replaced incurred-loss provisioning with a forward-looking expected-credit-loss model. The mechanics rest on three parameters — probability of default, loss given default and exposure…
Quantitative geopolitical risk models attempt to express political and security conditions as parameters an insurer can price and capitalise. They offer consistency and speed that narrative …
IFRS 17 changed how insurance contracts are measured and how profit emerges. Because management responds to what it is shown, a change in what the accounts reveal is also a change in how the…
The internal capital and liquidity adequacy assessment processes exist to answer two questions a board should be able to answer anyway: do we hold enough capital for the risks we actually ru…
The own risk and solvency assessment is the process through which an insurer forms and documents its own view of the risks it faces and the capital needed to support them over its planning h…
Credit-spread risk in the banking book is the risk that changes in the market price of credit risk and of market liquidity affect the value or earnings of non-trading positions, separately f…
Extreme-value theory provides a principled basis for estimating the probability of losses larger than anything in the observed record. Its appeal is that the limiting distributions are deriv…
Marine war-risk pricing translates a political and security assessment into a per-transit premium. The chain runs from exposure definition through event probability and severity to accumulat…
Interest-rate risk in the banking book is the exposure of a bank's capital and earnings to movements in interest rates arising from non-trading activity. It is measured from two perspectives…
Climate-risk modelling estimates how a changing climate and the policy response to it affect the financial position of banks and insurers. It differs from conventional risk modelling in thre…
Asset and liability management is the discipline of steering a balance sheet so that earnings, economic value, liquidity and capital remain acceptable together — not one at the expense of th…
Model validation establishes, through independent evidence, whether a model is fit for its declared purpose and under what conditions that conclusion stops holding. The framework below organ…
Every insurance decision sits on the same chain: expected loss, uncertainty around it, capital to carry that uncertainty, a price that recovers the cost of the capital, and limits that keep …
Actuarial risk modelling exists to convert uncertainty into decisions. Its output is not a forecast but a structured description of what could happen, how likely each outcome is, and what re…